Research Congressional Trading

Which Senator Has the Best Stock Market Track Record in 2026?

Congress members are required to publicly disclose stock trades within 45 days of execution. That creates a searchable, auditable record of what the people writing financial legislation are doing with their own money. We tracked 60 active traders and ranked them by what actually matters: accuracy and post-disclosure price returns.

The STOCK Act creates a paper trail — most people ignore it

Passed in 2012, the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act (STOCK Act) requires members of Congress to disclose any personal securities transaction over $1,000 within 45 days. The disclosures are public record, filed with the Senate or House ethics office, and searchable online.

Most people assume the filings disappear into bureaucratic noise. They don't. Quiver Quantitative, EDGAR, and a handful of tracking services have been aggregating these disclosures for years. What emerges is a complete trading record for every active congressional trader — not curated highlights, but every trade, every direction, every timing.

Flow Antenna pulls this data daily and scores each disclosure as a signal: how quickly did it move after the filing? In what direction relative to the disclosure? How did it correlate with other smart money sources (options flow, dark pool, insider trades) in the same ticker at the same time?

Methodology We measure post-disclosure price return at +7 days, +14 days, and +30 days. Win rate = percentage of disclosures where the disclosed direction (buy/sell) correctly predicted the price movement over 14 days. All data sourced from STOCK Act public filings via Quiver Quantitative. N = 60 senators and House members with 3+ disclosures in the trailing 12 months.

Who trades the most

Frequency and quality are different things. Some members file dozens of trades a month — largely ETFs and index funds that add little signal. Others file infrequently but with notable concentration. The traders who matter for signal intelligence are those with both frequency and specificity: individual equities, meaningful position sizes, and timing that doesn't look like passive rebalancing.

By filing volume, the most active congressional traders in 2026 have included members from both parties with known equity portfolios. But volume alone misleads. What follows is a look at the members whose track records, as revealed by post-disclosure returns, stand out — for better and worse.

The active leaderboard

Flow Antenna maintains a live congressional trading leaderboard updated as new disclosures arrive. Here's a representative snapshot of how the cohort of active traders breaks down by disclosed direction accuracy:

Member Chamber 14-Day Win Rate Signal Stance
Nancy Pelosi House (D-CA) High Tech-heavy, large-cap options
Tommy Tuberville Senate (R-AL) Mid Broad sector rotation
Dan Sullivan Senate (R-AK) Mid Energy and defense
John Hoeven Senate (R-ND) Mid Financials and industrials
Shelley Moore Capito Senate (R-WV) Low Mixed, lower frequency

The full ranked leaderboard with live data and per-senator signal history is available at Flow Antenna.

What the data actually shows

The honest answer is: congressional trading as a whole is not a uniform edge. The signal is concentrated. A small number of members — particularly those with long track records of tech-sector positioning, or those who sit on committees with jurisdiction over specific industries — show statistically meaningful post-disclosure returns. The rest look roughly like the market.

This matters for how you use the data. A congressional trade disclosure is not a buy signal by itself. It becomes more interesting when it converges with other independent sources — options flow in the same ticker in the same week, unusual dark pool prints, institutional 13F filings moving in the same direction. That convergence is what Flow Antenna's scoring engine is built to detect.

Key finding In Flow Antenna's signal database, congressional disclosures that arrive alongside dark pool activity in the same ticker score an average of 11 points higher on the conviction scale — and show materially higher 14-day win rates — than congressional disclosures with no corroborating flow.

The committee effect

One pattern that has appeared consistently in the STOCK Act data: members of committees with direct regulatory or legislative oversight over specific sectors tend to trade those sectors more frequently. Armed Services members trade defense contractors. Finance committee members trade banks. Energy committee members trade oil and gas.

This isn't necessarily evidence of wrongdoing — committee assignments are public, and members in those positions naturally develop informed views on sector prospects. But it does mean that committee membership is a useful contextual filter when evaluating a disclosure. A trade in a defense company from a member of the Armed Services Committee carries different informational weight than the same trade from a member of the Judiciary Committee.

Flow Antenna's signal scoring incorporates committee context for this reason. You can see the full individual senator breakdown — committee assignments, trade history, sector concentration — on each senator's dedicated page.

Limitations of this data

STOCK Act disclosures have real limitations worth understanding. The 45-day window means that by the time a trade is public, the original signal may have already partially or fully played out. Disclosure dates and transaction dates are often separated by weeks.

Additionally, disclosures report ranges, not exact amounts ($1,001–$15,000; $15,001–$50,000; etc.), so position sizing is approximate. And the system is self-reported — late filing is common, and amendments to earlier disclosures are routine.

These limitations are why Flow Antenna treats congressional disclosures as one signal source among several, not as standalone trade recommendations. The value is in the pattern — especially when the same direction appears in multiple unrelated data sources simultaneously.

How to track this yourself

The raw data is public. You can search disclosures directly on the House public financial disclosures portal or the Senate equivalent. Quiver Quantitative aggregates and normalizes these into a searchable database.

If you want the disclosures already scored against other signal sources — options flow, dark pool, insider filings, 13F changes — and surfaced only when there's convergence across multiple independent sources, that's what the This Week in Smart Money digest and the live congressional trades tracker are built for.

The senator leaderboard ranks all 60 active traders by their disclosed trade accuracy, updated as new filings arrive. Individual senator pages include a full trade history and, where available, a Quinn-generated AI analysis of their trading patterns.

See the live leaderboard

60 senators and House members ranked by trading accuracy. Updated as new STOCK Act disclosures arrive.

View Leaderboard This Week's Signals